Welcome to Staten News — where a political earthquake gets repriced before the coffee finishes brewing, and the first reaction rarely survives until sunrise.
Stock futures sold off last night as the map turned blue. By 7:39 this morning, Dow futures were up 803 points, or 1.5%. S&P 500 futures were up 1%. Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.5%, more than 900 points off their overnight low.
Same election. Completely different trade.
🗳️ Wall Street Read the Map and Saw a Stalemate
Democrats won both chambers. CNBC's Election Desk projects at least 245 House seats and at least 51 in the Senate, with Senate flips in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. Add a Republican in the White House for two more years and the market landed on one word fast. Gridlock.
Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon put it this way: markets "like gridlock." They do not like a party with too much power. President Trump also told the New York Times he was "absolutely willing" to accept the results, which took one more tail risk off the screen before the opening bell.
The move had already cooled a bit by 8 a.m., with Dow futures closer to 1% and Nasdaq-100 futures around 0.3%. Watch that spread, not the headline.
🔍 Check Who Isn't Invited to the Party
The Dow got the applause. The AI trade got a question mark. On Tuesday, BMO's Ian Lyngen warned that a stronger Democratic showing could make markets more nervous about AI regulation, and analysts flagged a Democratic win for Texas governor as a possible headache for data center builders. CNBC's Election Desk now projects Gina Hinojosa over Greg Abbott.
CoreWeave fell 3.6% premarket. SpaceX dropped more than 6% in overnight trading, and Trump Media lost more than 7%.
Money moved to the policy winners instead. First Solar jumped 8.5%, Plug Power rose 10.6%, Molina gained 6.3% and Centene added 5%. Gold climbed 2.93% to $4,043.45 by 5 a.m., while silver hit $51.98 and the dollar index slipped 0.39%. Translation: nobody is betting on a quiet two years, they're just betting on a different set of tickers.
🚀 Monday's Pick Showed Up With a $17 Billion Guide
We named AMD this week's predicted gainer on Monday. The stock rose 3.65% to $483.90 before it even reported, then added another 7.54% after hours to $520.40.
Revenue came in at $13.38 billion against a $13.06 billion estimate, up 45% from a year ago. Adjusted EPS hit $2.09 against about $1.94. Data center revenue nearly doubled to a record $8.5 billion, and that's the business carrying everything, because Gaming fell 40% to $773 million.
Then Lisa Su guided the fourth quarter to about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, and told analysts "we now expect revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027." That's not a guide. That's a dare.
One thing to watch: AMD's adjusted gross margin was 56% this quarter and the guide calls for about 55%. Small slip, big volume, and exactly the trade the market has been accepting from anyone selling AI hardware. Super Micro got the same treatment, up more than 9% after hours on a fiscal 2027 sales forecast of $72 billion to $82 billion against a $69.17 billion consensus.
📉 The Other Side of Monday's Calls
We also tagged Palantir as the predicted loser. Revenue rose 96% to $2.313 billion and U.S. commercial revenue jumped 148% to $984 million. The stock fell 1.6% on Tuesday anyway, so give that call partial credit. Nobody got paid much for being right on that one.
Apple was the more interesting miss. The company beat on profit and revenue, then forecast a gross margin of 45% to 46% against the roughly 47% analysts wanted, blaming memory costs. Shares fell 1.9% and dragged the Dow.
Think about what that means. Data center demand is driving up memory prices, which pays Micron and squeezes Apple. The AI boom now has a bill, and consumer hardware is getting it.
📅 What Could Ruin the Party
The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,568.92, up 0.36%, and most of its stocks still fell. Nvidia and Broadcom did the heavy lifting. The Nasdaq-100 sits about 10% below its recent high, which is still correction territory.
Because the bond market didn't get the memo about any of this. The 10-year hit 4.96% on Tuesday after job openings beat expectations, and it was at 4.93% overnight with the 30-year at 5.31%. Brent settled at $103.60 after swinging between $101 and $107 on Iran headlines.
History favors the bulls here. An Edward Jones analyst points out the S&P 500 has risen in every six-month period after a midterm since 1970. A guarantee? Not even close, especially with long rates this high.
The calendar gets a vote right away:
Today: ADP at 8:15 AM ET (about 70,000 expected, 90,000 prior)
Today: ISM services at 10 AM ET (54.7 expected, 54.9 prior)
Today: Qualcomm, Arm, Uber, McDonald's and CVS Health report
Friday: October jobs report at 8:30 AM ET (about 55,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment expected)
This is the week the gridlock rally finds out whether it can live with a 5% Treasury. Friday's jobs number decides how long the bond market lets the party run.
Sources: CNBC Markets Live, CNBC Election Desk, AMD Q3 Release (SEC 8-K), AP via Times Free Press
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
— The Bandicoots 📈🗳️