Welcome to Staten News, where the cards from 2018 are beating the cards from last month.
📈 Last Week's Biggest Gainer: Celebi ◇ (Lost Thunder #19)
Per Ripdex's 7-day movers (TCGplayer market prices, cards $5 and up, data as of October 10), Celebi Prism Star from Lost Thunder ran +287.1% to $47.03. That was the biggest weekly gain in the market.
It had company. Nine of the top ten weekly gainers were Prism Star cards from the Sun & Moon era:
Latios ◇ (Celestial Storm #108): +261.6% to $52.76
Latias ◇ (Celestial Storm #107): +189.6% to $39.00
Victini ◇ (Dragon Majesty #7): +121% to $23.25
Darkrai ◇ (Ultra Prism #77): +105.7% to $50.47
Jirachi ◇ (Celestial Storm #97): +98.8% to $39.87
Arceus ◇ (Forbidden Light #96): +95.9% to $31.97
Here's the honest part. I couldn't find a single announced catalyst. No reprint news, no tournament result, no viral pull. And the trackers don't even agree on the price. TCGindex has the same Celebi up 81.1% on the week, but at $14.94, not $47.
When two trackers are $32 apart on the same card, you're not looking at a deep market. You're looking at a handful of buyers sweeping thin listings in a $10 to $50 price band. That's how a whole subcategory doubles in seven days.
Possible this is the start of a real re-rating for Sun & Moon singles? Sure. Sun & Moon was printed in a much smaller market than today's. But nobody should treat a one-week sweep as price discovery.
📉 Last Week's Biggest Loser: Erika's Jigglypuff (30th Celebration Classic Collection #69)
Erika's Jigglypuff fell 36% to $8.74, the steepest weekly drop on the Ripdex list.
The bigger story is the neighborhood. Eight of the ten weekly losers came from 30th Celebration:
Greninja ex (#148): -29% to $21.10
Sylveon ex (#153): -26.1% to $43.87
Pikachu ex (#150): -25.8% to $60.45
Magikarp (Classic Collection #203): -25.7% to $85.02
Mew ex (#152): -25.1% to $85.19
Jirachi ex (#155): -24.9% to $49.35
That's what a set looks like a few weeks after launch when people keep opening it. Every box ripped is more supply hitting the same listings, and the mid-tier cards take the hit first.
Meanwhile the top of the set did the opposite. TCGindex lists Mew B/RGB from 30th Celebration as its biggest weekly gainer, up 115.2% to $3,747. The chase card pulls money in. Everything below it gets opened and dumped to fund the next box.
That's not a collapse. That's casino math doing exactly what casino math does.
🔮 This Week's Predicted Gainer: Delta Reign Sealed
Delta Reign hits shelves November 6, with prereleases running October 24 through November 1. Mega Rayquaza ex is the cover card. Here's where preorders sit versus MSRP:
Booster Box (36 packs): $250.09 market vs. $161.64 MSRP
Elite Trainer Box: $122.36 market vs. $49.99 MSRP
Booster Bundle (6 packs): $75.15 market vs. $26.94 MSRP
Read the ETB line again. It's trading at roughly 2.4 times retail before a single one has been opened.
Because the money leaving 30th Celebration singles has to go somewhere, and the next set on the calendar is the obvious landing spot. With the prerelease 12 days out, I expect the box to keep creeping higher this week as people who missed preorders start chasing allocation.
The risk is obvious. These are speculative prices with demand and no supply yet. Once product actually ships, a big print run can erase that premium fast.
🔻 This Week's Predicted Loser: Mew ex (30th Celebration #152)
Mew ex is down 25.1% to $85.19, and I don't see what stops the slide this week.
It's a popular card in a set people are still actively opening, which means the supply side isn't done. And with Delta Reign prerelease money starting to move, nobody's in a rush to park cash in a 30th Celebration ex while it's still falling. I'd wait for the selling to slow down before calling a bottom.
This is the week that tells us whether the hobby's money is rotating forward into Delta Reign or backward into the old Prism Star binders.
Sources: Ripdex Weekly Movers, TCGindex Market Study, PittPokeResearch Delta Reign Prices, Pokéled Delta Reign Guide
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before buying or selling collectibles.
— The Bandicoots 🃏🔥