Release Day Came and Went. The Data Is In. Here’s What Actually Happened.
Greninja peaked at $530, corrected overnight, and Chaos Rising just posted some of the nastiest pack math we’ve seen in the modern era.
Welcome to Staten News — where Chaos Rising officially survived launch weekend, collectors are now speed-running the five stages of pack-opening grief, and the post-release data finally answered the biggest question in the hobby:
Was the hype real?
Or was everyone just emotionally attached to frog ninjas again?
Turns out:
A little bit of both.
Because release-day excitement and release-day economics are very different conversations.
🃏🔥 Release Day Pricing Was Pure Adrenaline
The first 24 hours of any major Pokémon set are basically financial chaos wearing holographic cardboard.
And Chaos Rising absolutely delivered.
Here’s where the top cards peaked on launch day:
Mega Greninja ex SIR #116 — $530.07
Mega Greninja ex MHR #122 — $480.00
Cinccino ex SIR #119 — $106.46
Mega Dragalge ex SIR #118 — $100.41
AZ’s Tranquility #120 — $82.43
Mega Floette ex #117 — $81.71
Roxie’s Performance #121 — $54.79
And for about 18 glorious hours, every collector opening packs convinced themselves they were one booster away from paying off rent with a Greninja pull.
Then reality arrived.
📉 The Correction Already Started
Per Collectrics data updated May 25, the market cooled exactly how experienced collectors expected it to.
Current pricing:
Mega Greninja ex SIR #116 — $489.35 (-6.6%)
Mega Greninja ex MHR #122 — $382.69 (-10.8%)
Cinccino ex SIR #119 — $95.26 (-4.8%)
Mega Dragalge ex SIR #118 — $81.36 (-9.9%)
And honestly?
This is normal.
A 6–10% pullback after release weekend isn’t a collapse.
It’s the hobby remembering supply exists.
Release weekend is driven by:
FOMO
Streamers
“First-to-market” buyers
Sleep-deprived collectors opening packs at 2 AM like raccoons in a convenience store parking lot
Then the first wave of product hits the market and prices settle into reality.
The key takeaway:
Greninja SIR holding near $490 is actually stronger than expected.
That means demand is real.
The market just needed oxygen after launch-day hysteria.
📦 The Pack Math Is Absolutely Brutal
Now for the part nobody likes discussing while actively opening packs:
The EV.
And friends…
Chaos Rising is a financial jump scare.
According to Collectrics:
Average pack value: $4.77
Current pack cost: $10.50
Average loss per pack: -$5.73
Total set value: $1,543
That makes Chaos Rising the worst expected-value rip in the current Pokémon lineup.
Worse than Perfect Order.
Worse than prerelease estimates.
Worse than most people emotionally prepared themselves for.
Opening packs right now is basically:
“Would you like to exchange $10.50 for approximately $4.77 and temporary serotonin?”
🧮 The Pull Rates Explain Everything
The rarity data tells the whole story.
Pull Rates:
Double Rare: 1 per 4 packs
Illustration Rare: 1 per 9 packs
Ultra Rare: 1 per 12 packs
Special Illustration Rare: 1 per 80 packs
Mega Hyper Rare: 1 per 1,260 packs
Read that last one again.
The Mega Greninja ex MHR #122 pull rate is reportedly:
1 in 1,260 packs.
That’s roughly:
35 booster boxes
Around $5,657 at MSRP
Or one truly catastrophic weekend decision
And yet…
The PSA 10 projection currently sits around:
$2,524.66.
Which perfectly summarizes this set:
The ceiling is incredible.
The road to get there feels like surviving a side quest designed by a casino.
📈 Predicted Gainer — Mega Greninja ex SIR #116
The SIR correction looks more like release-day profit-taking than structural weakness.
Why?
Because confirmed pull rates matter.
At roughly 1 in 480 specific odds, supply remains tight enough that:
Casual rippers won’t flood the market
Sealed scarcity eventually matters
Long-term collectors are still circling the card aggressively
Watch the current ~$489 level closely.
If that floor stabilizes through early June, upward pressure probably resumes once opening volume slows and the second print wave gets delayed into market expectations.
📉 Predicted Loser — Everything Below The Chase Tier
The middle and lower tiers of Chaos Rising are getting absolutely crushed.
And honestly, the math guarantees it.
Average raw values:
Double Rares: $1.76
Ultra Rares: $8.85
That’s brutal.
Cards like:
Mega Floette ex #117
Roxie’s Performance #121
…are likely to continue compressing as more product gets opened and collector attention stays laser-focused on Greninja.
This is becoming a top-heavy set extremely quickly.
📦 The Sealed Product Reality Check
The Pokémon Center ETB sold out immediately.
Secondary prices exploded past $200 before restocks hit.
Standard ETBs disappeared fast in most markets.
And now we’re at the point where opening sealed product is objectively negative EV.
That doesn’t mean people stop opening.
Because ripping packs isn’t purely financial.
It’s entertainment.
It’s nostalgia.
It’s gambling with prettier artwork.
And honestly?
That’s fine.
Just don’t confuse “fun” with “investment strategy.”
The more interesting conversation now is sealed appreciation.
If Chaos Rising follows the trajectory of smaller modern sets like Crimson Invasion or Lost Thunder:
MSRP sealed product could age extremely well
Especially if June restocks stay limited
Especially with these pull rates
Especially with Greninja driving long-term demand
That’s the variable to watch over the next month.
🔮🔭 Final Take
Release weekend came and went.
Greninja peaked above $530.
The market corrected.
The pull rates got confirmed.
And Chaos Rising officially revealed what it really is:
A brutally difficult set carried by elite chase cards.
The MHR is 1 in 1,260 packs.
The average pack loses $5.73.
And collectors are still ripping anyway.
Because the top-end cards are good enough to keep people chasing.
For collectors targeting the big cards:
The best buying window may actually be happening right now before the second print wave narrative fully develops.
For everyone else?
Open packs for the experience — not the spreadsheet.
Stay sharp.
The floor-finding process starts now.
Data sourced from Collectrics, updated May 25, 2026.
— The Bandicoots 🃏🔥