The Clock Is Ticking, Prices Are Rising
Iran tensions are rising, oil is screaming higher, and Nvidia’s Wednesday earnings might decide whether the AI rally keeps flying — or finally hits turbulence.
Welcome to Staten News — where the market just lost its seven-week heater, the 10-year Treasury briefly tagged 4.6% like it was trying out for the Olympic high jump team, and Wall Street is now staring directly into what might be the most important earnings report of the year.
This week has everything:
Geopolitical escalation, oil shocks, AI mania, utility mega-mergers, and enough rate fear to make bond traders start stress-eating almonds again.
Because last week ended the streak.
This week decides whether the market still deserves the hype.
📊 Last Week Recap
💥 Biggest Gainer — Qualcomm (QCOM, +42%)
Quietly. Violently. Relentlessly.
While everyone was busy celebrating Cisco’s AI-fueled breakout, Qualcomm ripped 42% in just five sessions, hitting an all-time intraday high of $247.90. The move came from a perfect three-hit combo:
Surprise data center commentary during earnings
Cooling US-China tariff rhetoric
Analyst upgrades flooding in simultaneously
The market suddenly realized Qualcomm might not just be a smartphone company anymore.
It might be entering the AI infrastructure conversation too.
And yes — Cisco deserves flowers here as well.
We covered the initial 15% post-earnings explosion last week, but the final tally ended at +22.4% for the week, powered by:
12% YoY revenue growth
$5.3B in hyperscaler AI orders YTD
Raised FY2026 AI guidance to $9B
That quarter was cleaner than a freshly unboxed iPhone screen.
😬 Biggest Loser — Super Micro Computer (SMCI, -12.2%)
SMCI spent the week getting hit from every angle.
Ongoing legal scrutiny tied to alleged Nvidia chip smuggling to China kept pressure on the stock while the broader semiconductor pullback amplified the pain. SanDisk dropped nearly 10% in sympathy.
The bigger headline?
The Nasdaq officially snapped its seven-week winning streak — its longest since 2024.
And once momentum cracked, chip names with China exposure became the market equivalent of standing in a thunderstorm holding a metal golf club.
🔮 This Week’s Market Movers Prediction
📈 Predicted Gainer — Nvidia (NVDA)
Wednesday after the bell.
The main event.
Consensus expectations:
$79.2 billion revenue
$1.78 adjusted EPS
Roughly 72% YoY growth
KeyBanc raised its price target to $300 Monday morning, citing stronger-than-expected Blackwell GPU shipments estimated between 150,000–200,000 QoQ.
The stock already surged roughly 20% over the last two weeks on:
Beijing summit optimism
Reports of limited H200 approvals to Chinese firms
Pure AI demand momentum
But here’s the real story:
Jensen Huang previously referenced over $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin purchase commitments through 2027 — and that doesn’t even include Rubin Ultra or Feynman.
That number sounds fake until you realize the hyperscalers are acting like electricity itself is about to become sentient.
Options traders are pricing a 7.5% implied move post-earnings — more than double Nvidia’s recent historical average.
Translation:
Wednesday night could move the entire market.
📉 Predicted Loser — Alibaba (BABA)
The Beijing summit didn’t help.
Alibaba reported:
Revenue growth of just 3%
Core e-commerce revenue down 1%
First operating loss since 2021
At the same time, management doubled down on AI spending commitments while the core business continues slowing.
That’s a difficult pitch in a market where:
Rate hike probability jumped to 45% via CME FedWatch
Treasury yields are climbing
Investors are getting less patient with long-duration AI promises
The Hang Seng already slipped 1.6% last week.
BABA may remain trapped between weak macro conditions and increasingly skeptical investors.
⚡ The Two Stories Defining This Week
🤖 Nvidia Wednesday — The Number That Matters
We’ve circled May 20 for over a week.
Now we finally get the answer.
China revenue is effectively gone from guidance after contributing $17.1B in FY2025, and while reports suggest the US may allow limited H200 shipments to select Chinese firms, policy remains foggy at best.
Trump even said Nvidia chips “didn’t arise” during conversations with Xi.
That’s not clarity.
That’s a crack in the door with ten lawyers standing in front of it.
Meanwhile, analysts at TIKR estimate Nvidia could reach $372B in FY2027 revenue even excluding China entirely.
Wednesday determines whether investors believe those projections are genius…
or science fiction with good PowerPoint slides.
🛢️ Oil Is Back Above $110 — And The IEA Just Blinked
This story escalated fast.
Over the weekend:
Trump floated the possibility of waiving sanctions on Iranian oil exports
Iran responded with drone attacks targeting a UAE nuclear facility
Brent crude surged back above $110
WTI climbed above $102
Then came the more alarming development:
IEA Director Fatih Birol warned Monday that commercial oil inventories are rapidly depleting and only “weeks” of supply remain in some regions.
Strategic reserves are still releasing roughly 2.5 million barrels per day, but even the IEA acknowledged those reserves “are not endless.”
Now layer in:
Summer travel season
Spring agricultural demand
Rising jet fuel consumption
Persistent geopolitical instability
This isn’t calming down.
It’s accelerating.
⚡ Utilities Just Became the AI Trade
⚡ NextEra + Dominion = A $66.8B Power Move
Monday morning delivered one of the biggest infrastructure deals of the year:
NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy announced a $66.8 billion all-stock merger, creating what would become the largest utility company in the United States.
Dominion surged over 14% on the news.
This isn’t just an energy story.
It’s an AI story disguised as a utility merger.
Data centers are consuming historic amounts of electricity, hyperscalers are scrambling for reliable grid access, and the market is finally realizing that AI doesn’t just require chips.
It requires power.
Massive amounts of it.
The AI arms race is no longer just Nvidia vs AMD.
It’s now:
Utilities
Nuclear
Grid infrastructure
Energy storage
Transmission expansion
The invisible layer beneath AI is becoming investable.
📱🔌 Tech Side Note — Samsung Just Avoided Disaster
Late Sunday night, Samsung narrowly avoided a labor strike that could’ve severely disrupted global memory chip supply chains.
That matters more than people think.
A prolonged strike would’ve hit:
DRAM availability
HBM production
AI server supply chains
GPU manufacturing timelines
The semiconductor ecosystem is already stretched thin.
One disruption now can ripple through the entire AI stack faster than a bad firmware update.
📅 This Week’s Earnings Calendar
Tuesday
Home Depot
Toll Brothers
Cava
Wednesday
Nvidia
Target
TJX
Lowe’s
Williams-Sonoma
Intuit
FOMC Minutes
Thursday
Walmart
Deere
Ralph Lauren
Ross Stores
Zoom
Friday
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Walmart and Target together may tell us whether inflation is finally hitting the American consumer where it hurts most:
the checkout line.
If spending slows while inflation stays elevated, the stagflation narrative suddenly gets very real.
🔮🔭 Final Take
The seven-week rally is over.
The 10-year Treasury briefly touched 4.6% Monday morning, its highest level in a year.
Rate hike odds are climbing.
Oil is screaming higher.
Geopolitics are deteriorating.
And Nvidia reports Wednesday with what might be the largest earnings-related options positioning Wall Street has ever seen.
This isn’t a normal earnings week.
This is the week the market decides whether the AI trade has real structural support — or whether the rally simply outran the fundamentals.
Keep your watchlist tight.
Keep your coffee stronger.
And clear your Wednesday night schedule.
Because the next move probably starts there.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
— The Bandicoots 📉📈